Summer 2020 Outlook Webinar

May 21, 2020

Weather

What will summer 2020 look like? Earth Networks Senior Meteorologist, Chad Merrill, is here to tell you!

This year more than ever, we’re all looking forward to summer. What type of summer will the U.S. see in 2020? You can watch the recorded webinar below.

You can also download the slides or keep reading to get a quick summary!

Our 2020 Summer Outlook

Our meteorological services team worked hard on our summer forecast. Here’s a summary of what our team presented:

What Is the Summer Outlook?

The U.S. Summer Outlook covers the expected temperature and precipitation trends in the lower 48. It does not cover the tropics.

Our Summer Outlook covers the meteorological summer. Meteorological Summer: The entire months of June, July, and August.

There are a few factors that go into the summer outlook, including:

Decadal Temperature & Precipitation Trends
Analog Years
Current Forecasts and Drought Conditions
Climate Model Outlook

You can dive into these factors in the sections below, or you can jump to our 2020 Summer Outlook.

Last Summer’s Extremes

Past data helps us compile our current outlooks. The summer of 2019 was the hottest on record for the Northern Hemisphere (tied with 2016). Florida, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico saw some of the worst of these temperature extremes.

Last summer, Florida started the summer hot with record warm average low temperatures in June. Later in August, Arizona, Utah, and New Mexico experienced record warm average high temperatures.

It’s not all about the temperatures, though. There were also some extreme precipitation events last summer. In August, both Nebraska and Kansas experienced record wet months.

What About The Last Two Decades?

We can’t just look back to the last year. Our forecasters look back to the last two decades to make the summer outlook. Over the past 20 years, there have been record warmth, records driest summers, and record wet summers across the United States.

Decadal Trends

The past ten summers show a warm signal in the West and East, a wet signal in the Midwest and East, and a dry signal from Texas to the Northwest.

Minimum temperatures have trended warmer in much of the Maximum temperatures have trended warmer throughout the West, South Plains, and the I-95 Corridor.

ENSO

Another factor that goes into the Summer Outlook is ENSO.

ENSO is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This pattern has warming (El Niño), cooling (La Niña), and neutral phases, which you’ve probably heard of before.

This year we’re expected to have a near neutral ENSO, which means sea surface temperatures will be near average.

Our 2020 Summer Outlook

Our Summer Outlook includes two components: Temperature and precipitation. We expect much of the U.S. to experience a warmer than average temperatures from June to August.

In June, you’ll see these above average temperatures in the West and Southwest as well as the Gulf Coast and Florida.

During the next month of July, those above average temps will spread to the Northeast.

In August, the areas of above average temperatures recede a little in each region.

As for precipitation, we have areas for above and below average. In the map below, you can see that a majority of the eatern part of the country will see above average summer precipitation. On the other hand, parts of the West will see below average precipitation.