2022 Hurricane Season Outlook
- May 12, 2022
2022 Hurricane Outlook Forecast
The following 2022 Hurricane Season Outlook was updated on May 11, 2022 to reflect the outcome of our Outlook webinar. For our outlook recording and other information, please click here.
The 2022 Hurricane Season
Now that the Earth Networks meteorology team presented the 2022 Hurricane Outlook, we can share the details on what to expect during this year’s hurricane season! In case you missed the webinar, you can still access the recording here as well as the accompanying slides.
What can we predict for this hurricane season?
In the 2022 Hurricane Outlook, our meteorology team gives us an inside look at the 2022 hurricane season forecast, including:
- A review of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season
- Tropical Cyclone Climatology and How Climate Factors Influence the Forecast
- The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast
A Look Back: 2021 Hurricane Outlook Accuracy
You may be wondering, how will this year’s hurricane season compare to last year? In 2021, there were a total of 21 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. To learn more about the 2021 hurricane season, take a look at the 2021 Hurricane Season Outlook blog and recording.
Earth Networks’ 2021 Hurricane Outlook forecast is also available on the Barcelona Supercomputing Center site, which provides the most recent tropical cyclone forecasts from each of the prominent forecasting centers.
Last year, the Earth Networks’ meteorology team predicted 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes— there were a total of 21 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 storms at the end of the hurricane season. Last year’s actual numbers were fairly close to the meteorology team’s predictions, and the majority of the season’s storms and hurricanes were accurately predicted. Let’s see what this hurricane season will be like.
What will impact the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
What elements will play a role in this year’s hurricane season? The primary key predictors include:
- El Niño / La Niña (ENSO)
- Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)
- Western Hemisphere Warm Pool
Key Predictors in the 2022 Hurricane Season: ENSO, AMO, and Western Hemisphere Warm Pool
As in 2021, Earth Networks predicts another ENSO to occur during the 2022 hurricane season. An ENSO is a periodic cyclical warming and cooling of the equatorial pacific oceans.
Additionally, we predict increased AMO activity, which is defined as Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. As a result, the combination of both AMO and ENSO will modulate Atlantic tropical activity. Additionally, when ENSO phase is combined with AMO phase, a clear pattern emerges. Moreover, stronger La Niñas and positive AMOs favor more active hurricane seasons, whereas stronger El Niños and negative AMOs favor more inactive hurricane seasons. To learn more about ESNO and AMO predictions, take an inside look at the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane slide deck.
The 2022 Hurricane Outlook also reviews the following information:
- Latest ocean water temperature anomalies
- Forecast summer ocean water temperature anomalies
- West African rainfall
- Analog years— years with similar predictor patterns to 2022
Combining All Predictions
Earth Networks determines the final forecast probability based on the likelihood of ACE falling into a given tercile. Accordingly, Tercile groupings correspond to 1/3 (33.3%) of observed seasonal values in 1991 to 2020 climatology. We define ACE as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), the sum of the Squares of 6-hourly Maximum Sustained Wind Speeds (in units of knots) for all Systems while they are at least Tropical Storm intensity. Our statistical prediction forecast is based a neural network incorporating several predictors in the Atlantic ocean basin that have shown skill in seasonal ACE forecasting. So what does that mean for this year’s hurricane season? Keep reading to find out!
Our 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook
With all of these factors top of mind, our team of experts meteorologists are predicting an above average hurricane season.
There is a 49% of an above average hurricane season in 2022. There is a 39% chance of a normal season, and just a 12% chance of a below normal hurricane season.
Based on the statistical model forecasts from our Earth Networks’ meteorology team, our forecasters are predicting 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. As you can see in the chart above, our forecast reveals an above average hurricane season ahead.
Overall, we can expect a 2022 hurricane season reflecting the following forecast quantities for storms and hurricanes:
Are you prepared for this hurricane season? 🌀⛈
Plan Ahead for the 2022 Hurricane Season
This hurricane season will be full of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Our team of expert meteorologists has the accuracy and expertise to help you effectively plan and maintain your operations. Contact us today to see how the expert meteorologists at Earth Networks, in addition to our weather monitoring and alerting tools, can help you safely navigate 2022 hurricane season.
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