NOAA Increases Chance for Above-Normal Hurricane Season

Aug 15, 2019

The 2019 hurricane season has been relatively quiet so far, but will it stay that way?

The 2019 hurricane season has been quiet so far, but @NOAA doesn't expect it to stay that way. Share on X

Last week, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that conditions are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity.

But what do the Earth Networks Meteorologists think?

Mid-Season Outlook Webinar

Join us for the Earth Networks 2019 Hurricane Mid-Season Outlook Webinar to learn what our forecasters are expecting.

Stormy background with text promoting the 2019 Hurricane Mid-Season Outlook Webinar on August 22, 2019 - 10 AM ET

Earth Networks Meteorologist, Anthony Sagliani will present our Meteorology Team’s 2019 Mid-Season update on Thursday, August 22. The 30-minute presentation will start at 10 AM ET and is totally free.

As with all of our webinars, feel welcome to bring your own questions for a Q&A session.

So What Did NOAA Have to Say?

During their outlook in May, seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasted a 30% chance for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.

With their latest update on August 8, these same forecasters increased the likelihood to 45%.

The likelihood of near-normal activity is now at 35% and the chance of below-normal activity has dropped to 20%.

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook August 8 update from NOAA: 20% below-normal season, 35% chance near-normal, 45% chance above normal with 10-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes — Credit: NOAA’s August 8, 2019 Update

Predicted Storms

NOAA’s number of predicted storms also increased. NOAA now expects 10-17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater). This is a slight jump up from their initial prediction of 9-15 named storms.

They believe 5-9 of these named storms will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), which is slightly higher than the initial prediction of 4-8.

Their major hurricane prediction remains the same at 2-4 storms of category 3, 4, or 5. These storms have winds of 111 mph or higher.

Average Season Reminder

The average Atlantic hurricane season sees 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Remember, NOAA’s hurricane season outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Landfall depends on short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within a week of the storm potentially reaching a coastline.