Probabilistic Predictions of High-Impact Weather
Extreme weather events are the most difficult for traditional forecast models to handle, yet have the most impact on national and international energy markets. Enter OmniCast—a suite of weather and climate forecast products for the energy sector that provides increased forecast skill, particularly for extreme events.
The product suite includes daily, weekly, and seasonal probabilistic forecasts of surface temperature, heat wave and cold events, and tropical cyclones, including twice-daily outlooks of tropical cyclone activity for the next 15 days, and twice-weekly forecasts of regional risk and tropical cyclone potential out to 32 days.
OmniCast is the latest addition to Earth Networks’ solutions portfolio for the energy sector, which includes comprehensive weather data, meteorological forecasting and consulting services, and visualization and decision-support tools that support power generation, transmission and distribution, energy use and efficiency, and demand-side management.
Based on World-Class Research and Technology
OmniCast forecast products incorporate the latest research of a team that is led by renowned scientists Dr. Judith Curry and Dr. Peter Webster, and includes leading experts in weather and climate dynamics, ensemble-based prediction methods, extreme weather events and their impacts, information technology and decision support tools. Model forecasts are dynamically adjusted to remove biases and distributional errors, helping to identify outlier, extreme events. Extensive forecast verification, combined with research into predictability and forecast uncertainty, support solutions that provide an assessment of confidence for each forecast.
Interactive Dashboard Interface
The OmniCast user interface is based on an interactive layered dashboard approach that delivers different types and levels of information to support both quick decisions and in-depth analysis. Information in each dashboard starts more general and quick-decision oriented, then becomes more specific and detailed. The design of OmniCast allows customization for each individual client and incorporates a wide array of features to address different user styles and preferences in accessing information.
North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
- Provides twice-daily outlooks of tropical cyclone activity for the next 15 days including a daily forecast summary and extended forecast discussions for potentially landfalling tropical cyclones
- Forecasts include probabilistic tropical cyclone formation forecasts, pre-genesis, and post-genesis track and intensity outlooks
- Basin-wide risk of tropical cyclone activity is provided for several sub-domains including Production Region of Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, Main Development Region
- Twice-weekly forecast extension out to 32 days for regional risk and tropical cyclone potential
- In-depth meteorological analysis is supported using various environmental variable map fields
- Probabilistic impact graphics including threat of high surface winds is also provided
15-Day U.S. Temperature Forecasts
- Provides forecast maximum and minimum departures from normal for next two weeks for over 100 U.S. locations using CFAN's customized MOS solution
- Deterministic temperature forecasts complemented with inter-percentile plume view to denote forecast confidence and uncertainty
- U.S. maps of bias-corrected minimum and maximum temperatures using the ensemble mean and at various percentile intervals
- Additional in-depth meteorological components include - hemispheric height and temperature anomalies, teleconnections and high-latitude stratospheric-tropospheric interaction
Monthly Temperature Forecasts
- Weekly forecast summary provided each Thursday night by the CFAN forecast team via email (soon to be added to website along with regional 4-week temperature anomaly table)
- Provides heat wave / cold wave weekly risk for key population centers across the US
- 5-day average bias-corrected temperature / temperature anomaly plots for the US and Europe
- Additional in-depth meteorological components include - hemispheric height and temperature anomalies, teleconnections and high latitude stratospheric-tropospheric interaction
- Monthly forecast summary provided by the 10th of the month by the CFAN forecast team via email and posted on website along with a 4-month regional temperature anomaly outlook table
- Provides overview of temperature and precipitation anomalies for next 6 months for the US and Europe
- US temperature exceedance graphics capture probabilistic view of temperature anomaly risk across the US
- Additional in-depth meteorological components include - hemispheric height and temperature anomalies, ENSO, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections
- In-depth summary report made available via the website contains key components from website along with additional analysis via clustering and NOAA’s CFS model